This insight reframes recent labor market debates. The rise in vacancies since the mid-2010s, and especially after the pandemic, reflects a growing focus on poaching rather than a general shortage of labor. Aggregate vacancy measures, which mix these two motives, have become a noisy and potentially misleading signal.
Wow! TIL about the Beveridge Curve in economics! And looking at this chart it was cyclical until the boom of 2010 and produced another K shaped chart! not clear yet if this signal is divorced from reality or if it will fall back into a cyclical pattern. Very cool.
Quote Citation: Paulina Restrepo-Echavarría , Mickenzie Bass, “Why Job Vacancy Types Matter for Monetary Policy | St. Louis Fed”, November 18, 2025, https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/nov/beveridge-curves-why-job-vacancy-types-matter-monetary-policy