Author: Maximiliano A. Dvorkin , Fernando Leibovici , Ana Maria Santacreu

Our analysis suggests that tariff measures are already exerting measurable upward pressure on consumer prices. The rise in prices beginning in early 2025 coincides closely with tariff developments, and our model-based regressions confirm that these effects are statistically and economically significant.

At the same time, the pass-through remains partial; only a portion of the model-predicted effect has materialized so far. This could reflect delays in price adjustments, competitive pressure limiting firms’ ability to raise prices, or expectations that the tariffs may prove temporary.

Seems like the law of averages is at work here. the Headline inflation rate seems in check, but durable goods is sky rocketing. I checked the y-axis starts at 0. No bad graphs here.

_{Quote Citation: Maximiliano A. Dvorkin , Fernando Leibovici , Ana Maria Santacreu, “How Tariffs Are Affecting Prices in 2025 | St. Louis Fed”, October 16, 2025, https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/oct/how-tariffs-are-affecting-prices-2025}