Global Investment Research projects that OpenAI still won’t be profitable by 2030, even though its consumer base will grow by that point to comprise some 44% of the world’s adult population (up from 10% in 2025). Beyond that, it will need at least another $207 billion of compute to keep up with its growth plans. This stark assessment reflects soaring infrastructure costs, heightened competition, and an AI market that is surging in demand and cash-intensive to a degree beyond any technology trend in history. … HSBC, like many other banks writing on the AI revolution, returned again to the famous quote by Nobel Prize winner Robert Solow that “you can see the computer age everywhere but in productivity statistics,” noting drily that “poor productivity gains driven by weak total factor (labor and capital) productivity are an unfortunate characteristic of today’s developed economies.” In fact, the bank notes that some aren’t convinced of a meaningful return yet from the 30-year-old internet revolution itself, citing Federal Reserve president John Williams’s 2017 comment that “productivity provided by modern technologies like the internet has so far only influenced our consumption of leisure—and hasn’t yet trickled down to offices or factories.”
A lot of money is being lit on fire in pursuit of the next platform to rule them all.. I don’t think individual companies are acting irrationally. but the trillions being spent don’t exactly look like they’ll have an ROI anytime soon.
Quote Citation: Nick Lichtenberg, “OpenAI won’t make money by 2030 and still needs to come up with another $207 billion to power its growth plans, HSBC estimates | Fortune”, November 26, 2025, 1:24 PM ET, https://fortune.com/2025/11/26/is-openai-profitable-forecast-data-center-200-billion-shortfall-hsbc/