Our measures using Homebase tend to overstate hirings and separations when compared with those derived from JOLTS. This discrepancy can be attributed to two main factors. First, the composition of the Homebase sample differs significantly from that of JOLTS. While JOLTS provides a representative sample across all economic sectors, Homebase’s data predominantly reflect hourly workers in the service and retail industries, which are sectors characterized by higher turnover rates. Second, our methodology counts each instance when an employee takes a week off and then returns to work as a separation followed by a new hire.
NO surprises here. Real payroll data tends to reflect faster than survey based data from JOLTS. Look now further than ADP/Paychex jobs indexes.
Quote Citation: stlouisfed, “Using High-Frequency Private Data to Track the U.S. Labor Market”, November 07, 2025, https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/nov/using-high-frequency-private-data-track-labor-market