The modest rise in September’s unemployment stemmed primarily from people outside the labor force moving into unemployment (rather than directly into jobs). However, this component of flows into and out of unemployment remained within its typical range of month-to-month variation. Other components of unemployment flows tracked near their 12-month averages.
So we’re cooked? Kinda a mixed signal.. Would love to see fewer “open to work” banners on linkedin…
Quote Citation: @stlouisfed, “Flash Report: U.S. Unemployment Flows in September”, November 20, 2025, https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/nov/flash-report-unemployment-payroll-rise-september?utm_source=Federal+Reserve+Bank+of+St.+Louis+Publications&utm_campaign=afa87bfd25-BlogAlert_Manual_112025&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c572dedae2-afa87bfd25-237369665