AI Job impact, augmentation now - replacement later

The swift advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has sparked significant concern that this new technology will replace jobs and stifle hiring. … Businesses reported a notable increase in AI use over the past year, yet very few firms reported AI-induced layoffs. Indeed, for those already employed, our results indicate AI is more likely to result in retraining than job loss … Looking ahead, however, layoffs and reductions in hiring plans due to AI use are expected to increase, especially for workers with a college degree.

Feels like a tale of two narratives. If you’re currently employed, great you’re expected to leverage technology to get more things done. I feel like this has always been the case?

but if you’re note employed. oof. It is a hard job market to enter right now. And this quote doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence that layoffs and reductions are expected to increase.

_{Quote Citation: Liberty Street Economics (Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, Natalia Emanuel, Ben Hyman, and Nick Montalbano), “Are Businesses Scaling Back Hiring Due to AI? - Liberty Street Economics”, 2025-09-04, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/09/are-businesses-scaling-back-hiring-due-to-ai/}